About Unagi

Unagi is a free, open-source dashboard that forecasts day-ahead electricity prices for Sweden and publishes how accurate those forecasts turn out to be. It reads public data and translates it into one readable view — nothing here is behind a login.

What we predict

All four Swedish bidding zones: SE1, SE2, SE3, SE4.
Daily-average and hourly prices from tomorrow out to seven days ahead (d+1 to d+7).
An 80% prediction interval around each forecast.

Accuracy

We publish our accuracy live rather than describe it. For each zone we show the trailing 28-day mean absolute error (MAE) next to a same-weekday-average baseline, and how often the actual price landed inside the 80% interval.

These numbers are visible on the forecast itself, so the forecast and its track record sit side by side.

Method

Prices are predicted with LightGBM (gradient-boosted trees), retrained daily on recent history in a walk-forward setup. The 80% interval comes from conformalized quantile regression (CQR). Horizons beyond d+1 are produced recursively.

Main inputs: forecast demand, wind and weather, hydro reservoir levels, German (DE) day-ahead prices, calendar effects, nuclear availability and recent price history.

Everything is open source on GitHub.

Data sources

ENTSO-E — Generation mix, cross-border flows and hydro reservoir levels for SE1–SE4.
SMHI / Open-Meteo — Wind, temperature and solar/radiation — forecasts and history.
eSett — Nordic imbalance settlement prices.
Riksbank — EUR/SEK reference rates for converting market data.
Skatteverket — Electricity tax and VAT (moms) rates for the cost breakdown.
Energimarknadsinspektionen (Ei) — Network-tariff and retailer reference data.

Public API & MCP

A public API and an MCP server (for asking Unagi questions from an AI assistant) are planned but not released yet. If you have a concrete use case — a Home Assistant sensor, a research project — email hello@unagieel.net and tell us what you need.

Privacy

Page views are counted with Vercel Web Analytics, which uses no cookies. To see whether people come back, your browser also keeps the dates of your first and latest visit in local storage, and we receive only the number of days since then — no identifier, IP address or browser details are stored. Browsers that send Do Not Track or Global Privacy Control are not counted.

Contact

Questions, corrections or data-source suggestions are welcome at hello@unagieel.net, or open an issue on GitHub.